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England will do a lot better at the World Cup than many think, UBS predicts

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How often do the Swiss get things really wrong?

Well, bankers from UBS have crunched the numbers and think England are set to deliver their best World Cup performance for almost 30 years.

The Three Lions will outperform the likes of France, Argentina and Portugal, UBS' boffins say.

Using econometric tools, usually applied to assess investment opportunities, UBS today predicted the outcome of the World Cup.

England star Paul Gascoigne was left devastated 28 years ago (Source: Getty)

England is the fourth most likely team to win the whole tournament, suggesting a semi-final berth could be on the cards. Gareth Southgate's squad – boasting the third youngest average age of any English team heading to the World Cup – has an 8.5 per cent chance of lifting the Jules Rimet trophy.

UBS think Germany is most likely to win the World Cup, with a 24 per cent chance. Joachim Low's team head Brazil and then Spain in the rankings. England, however, have one of the best chances of making the quarter-finals – UBS reckons there is a 66 per cent likelihood Harry Kane et al will make the last eight.

Read more: Southgate hails young England: It's a World Cup squad to get excited about

How well will your team do?

Country/percentage chance Winner Runner-up Semi-finalist Quarter-finalist Group stage winner Group stage second place
Germany 24.0 36.7 51.3 66.7 68.6 22.0
Brazil 19.8 31.9 44.1 60.5 66.8 23.1
Spain 16.1 28.0 50.5 68.5 60.6 26.5
England 8.5 18.7 31.4 66.2 53.7 33.6
France 7.3 16.1 35.1 59.5 60.1 24.6
Belgium 5.3 11.6 23.8 56.9 38.3 43.7
Argentina 4.9 11.3 26.9 51.8 54.7 26.4
Portugal 3.1 8.0 21.8 39.8 25.2 38.2
Uruguay 1.8 5.5 15.8 32.0 42.5 34.3
Switzerland 1.8 5.0 11.5 22.9 19.7 39.6
Mexico 1.8 5.3 10.9 22.5 17.2 36.6
Italy 1.6 4.4 10.1 19.4 15.3 31.0
Russia 1.6 4.6 14.4 30.5 41.4 33.6
Poland 0.9 2.9 7.1 24.7 35.4 28.7
Colombia 0.5 1.8 5.0 20.0 28.2 27.9
Sweden 0.4 1.4 3.8 9.9 8.8 23.7
Iran 0.4 1.7 5.6 14.2 9.4 21.4
Nigeria 0.3 1.3 4.8 15.9 16.3 25.5
Peru 0.3 1.2 5.3 16.8 14.4 27.2
Serbia 0.2 1.0 2.8 7.7 8.7 22.8
Senegal 0.2 0.9 2.7 12.6 19.9 22.8
Iceland 0.2 0.7 3.7 13.6 13.8 23.5
Croatia 0.2 0.9 4.4 15.0 15.2 24.7
South Korea 0.2 0.6 1.9 6.0 5.4 17.7
Denmark 0.1 0.9 4.3 15.5 14.2 26.0
Australia 0.1 0.5 3.3 12.0 11.3 22.2
Morocco 0.1 0.3 2.2 6.8 4.9 13.9
Japan 0.1 0.4 1.6 9.8 16.6 20.6
Egypt 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.1 9.5 17.3
Tunisia 0.0 0.3 1.1 8.0 6.0 15.9
Costa Rica 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.9 4.7 14.5
Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.2 6.7 14.8
Panama 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.9 6.8

"Following the unveiling of the 23-man England squad yesterday, excitement levels have ramped up. Our calculations suggest there is reason to be optimistic," said UBS wealth management economist Dean Turner.

"We see a two-thirds chance of England reaching the quarter-final stage, but their way to the semi-final could lead through a tricky tie with Brazil.

England has a balanced team, an attribute that complements teamwork and can transform a successful team into a future champion. It is also an attribute that offers important lessons for investors to learn from successful football teams. When it comes to investments, holding a diversified portfolio of assets is incredibly important.

Read more: England World Cup squad confirmed: Alexander-Arnold and Loftus-Cheek picked

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